2022-23 job market

[jobs]

any thoughts/hypotheses on what things might look like next cycle?

[FoodforThought]

If it helps at all, last year I only had 33 tenure-track jobs to apply for, some of which were a stretch, between August and April due to the pandemic wrecking higher education. I came close to getting an offer or two but ultimately nothing materialized. This year, I had applied to 60 tenure-track jobs between August and February and had two offers by end of that month. So, I had almost double the number of jobs to apply to in about 2/3 of the time. This gives some insight into how higher education recovered this year.

Last year, there were "no" jobs; this year, there were plenty of jobs by comparison but probably two or three times the number of competitive applicants due to the scarcity last year. I can't say to what extent the number of jobs might increase, probably not by the same margin between last year and this year based on my experience but it should by some degree. It should, hypothetically, be a (somewhat) less competitive playing field next year (if my sole experience can be anything to go on).

I would like to also point out that I had six or so positions I felt I was competitive for that I never applied for due to accepting one of my offers. If I applied through April like I did last year, then I would say my number of tenure-track applications would have likely reached into the 80s.

I hope this helps!

[op]

super useful insight! definitely helps provide some perspective re: how things have changed between 2020-22 and how they might evolve next year

[anxious]

thanks to foodforthought. a follow-up question: will there not be just as much of a backlog in the upcoming cycle as there was last year? in other words, do you think enough people have been hired this year to clear the huge (2x or 3x the usual) number of applicants that were pushed back because of COVID?

[FoodforThought]

That's a good question. Based on my lone experience, to whatever extent we could go on it, there were way more jobs this year than I anticipated (even compared to the scarcity last year). During spring 2021, my department chair said it would likely take three years for the market to return to whatever its normalcy was pre-pandemic. That would make next year year three (not accounting for the positions/contracts cancelled during spring 2020, when the pandemic first hit).

Assuming next year has the same number of positions available - which could happen since we are reaching something close to post-pandemic, but we have some economic turmoil with inflation, supply chain issues, and war in Ukraine - I would say it will be less competitive than this year but a bit more (probably 1.5X the number of competitive applicants per position compared to this year's 2-3X).

So, with all that being said, I would expect next year to be not as bad as this year, but the 23-24 cycle to be the first one to resemble 18-19, the first full hiring cycle before the pandemic hit.

[anxious]

thanks for sharing your perspective. i hope you/your advisor is right!

[FoodforThought]

You're very welcome.

If it helps at all, I was more competitive this year than I thought I would be in terms of the interviews I was able to get; I had two job offers by end of February. With that in mind, I would be (cautiously) optimistic about next year!

[anxious]

curious: were you on the R1 market? i realized i assumed this convo was about R1 jobs ....

[FoodforThought]

I applied across the spectrum, R1s to small, nondescript liberal arts colleges (and post-docs.). I had the majority of my success with R3 public regional colleges and private liberal arts colleges, but I made it partway through the hiring process at two R2s (one Ph.D.-granting) and turned down an R2 first-round interview offer due to already accepting a job offer.

To give you a sense, I was more competitive with the R2 schools than I anticipated despite the competitiveness of the job market. I think that bodes well for anyone next year, regardless of their institutional aspirations. One or two more publications, and I would have been more competitive with the R2s and the R1s I had applied to but heard nothing from.

[1]

More PhDs are also moving into industry. Which cuts down somewhat on applications. However, that is probably canceled out by the number of PhDs extending their degree or VAPs/postdocs.

My guess is next cycle will be similar to this year. Maybe a slight increase of jobs. But probably not meaningfully different for the average applicant.

[anxious]

thanks, 1. i do agree with FoodforThought that it will probably improve over time. maybe more slowly next year than we'd like but at least some of the folks landed jobs this year, which does something to address the backlog.

i wonder, too, how this has affected search committees' process. given that they are choosing among an even larger batch of qualified people, does "fit" become more important? what's the added value of a solo asr/ajs + book contract with manuscript out for review? hard to know ....

[1]

Getting a TT job has been very competitive for the last 10 years and that competition curve probably became even sharper the last year. So much comes down to luck. Just try your best and see what happens.

But also have a backup plan. If I don't get a TT job in the next 2 years, I'll move to industry. I have been working on skills that would be applicable for either direction.

[2]

This is a helpful thread, thanks. I've been able to get interviews at top r1s over several cycles but haven't managed to convert those into offers. Hard to know if it's just random or if there's something going wrong on my end. I realize you can't diagnose the situation. Perhaps it's best to just do as you say and think about backups. Or maybe I'll get lucky next time.

[1]

Mar 17, 2022 16:44:14 GMT -5 2 said:

This is a helpful thread, thanks. I've been able to get interviews at top r1s over several cycles but haven't managed to convert those into offers. Hard to know if it's just random or if there's something going wrong on my end. I realize you can't diagnose the situation. Perhaps it's best to just do as you say and think about backups. Or maybe I'll get lucky next time.

probably luck, but hard to know of course from our end if it is something else. 

are you only applying to top R1s? might be worth expanding your application list too

[2]

I apply very broadly, but, for some reason, only seem to get these top interviews. It's puzzling to me. It could have something to do with my area of study. But who knows .....