workers vs. jobs

[numbers schmumbers]

So there are about 350 job ads that have been posted to the rumor mill (give or take). Do we have any idea, or any way of estimating, how many job seekers there are? I'm just curious about the actual jobs vs. workers deficit.

[guest321]

There is no realistic way of knowing this. As has been acknowledged before, we can easily see the demand side of the market -- we know how many positions are advertised. What we cannot see are how many postdocs are looking for jobs, how many people with PhD in hand did other things to bide their time (e.g. remaining at institutions as lecturers, working in government/private industry for a few years, etc.) and how many assistant professors who underplaced or are dissatisfied with location are now on the move.

[well]

Give some of the numbers for applicants to assistant/open searches, I'd guess well into the 500 range. How many of those are from people who will forever be stuck in a state of adjunct-freeway-flier-limbo, I dunno, but I'd bet money that there are way more people looking than jobs for them to find.

[rrr]

That much is obvious. However, you also have an attrition process, as people peel off to go for realistic non-academic careers. (Unfortunately, we do have some gendered effects there, in terms of women staying the course in the VAP / adjunct route. Wise up ladies!)

[rrr]

Sorry, I realize that sounds kind of like a d!ck thing to say - this is coming from when I adjuncted, and the place was full of these angry women who had done the VAP / adjunct thing and had very little to show for it after multiple years. I imagine that the guys had felt pressured to get out sooner due to expectations to support the family, and so forth.

[really]

are you a sociologist? men feeling more pressure to get out and "support the family"?

yes, gender norms and gender socialization definitely play a role in women not advocating for themselves professionally while are more likely to. But saying that men only get out quickly to "support the family" is and extremely outdated notion and frankly, i would expect more from a sociologist.

[rrr]

Norms can be slow to change. How else can you explain gender differences in trajectory to tenured professor? (As in, rates of)

Also, I don't think this is ideal - that's just a statement of what I observed, not how I think the world should be.

[guest]

Oct 26, 2011 18:29:01 GMT -5 @really said:

are you a sociologist? men feeling more pressure to get out and "support the family"?

yes, gender norms and gender socialization definitely play a role in women not advocating for themselves professionally while are more likely to. But saying that men only get out quickly to "support the family" is and extremely outdated notion and frankly, i would expect more from a sociologist.

There is nothing at all outdated about the notion that men feel pressure to support families; let us not throw away good sense and touch with reality in the name of claiming enlightenment. There exists quite solid evidence that men and women emphasize different characteristics of a job when reporting satisfaction, identifying desirable choices, etc.

[anon]

The flip side of this is that women may be more likely to stay in adjunct/VAP positions to accommodate a spouse's job. I think this is also true. Not that it should be, but I have certainly seen it happen. Although among younger couples, I have also seen many men be flexible to follow their partners. So, again, not a universal by any means. But I do think that gender inequality comes into play at the couple-level, which trickles up to the distribution of men and women in various career trajectories.

[numbers schmumbers]

I think the 536 unique applications UMASS got is a good base for a starting point, since it's an open search for a desirable job. But you would have to add in the people who didn't apply for various reasons...I think a more accurate guess of total job seekers would start at 600+.

[bandit]

I'm guessing 600-800 people on the market, with the number possibly up to a 1000. I know a few people who didn't apply & are searching for a job, & my n is two schools. Generalize that to all doctoral programs and people 'treading water' in temp positions [VAPs, postdocs, etc.], and you've got a lot of people. My feeling is that its 2-3 applicants per position [not 1.2 to 1 as the ASA implies] .

[fishy numbers]

Oct 27, 2011 14:10:21 GMT -5 @bandit said:

[not 1.2 to 1 as the ASA implies] .

Wasn't it actually 1.2 positions per applicants?

Also, was that based on the number of registered job bank users? If so, I can imagine how it would be a huge undercount.

[blunt]

The maths is simple:
There is an average of 200 applicants per position.
That's the real ratio.

The 1.2 or 2 per place is just fictitious statistics (of the kind there are 2 women per men in the world)

[blunter]

Oct 27, 2011 14:40:08 GMT -5 @blunt said:

The maths is simple:
There is an average of 200 applicants per position.
That's the real ratio.

Um, but there is more than one position available, so it's not the real ratio.

[bluntest]

^blunter is correct, and here's the proof:

Let's say the pool of applicants is 200 unique people.

When there is 1 total job available, the ratio is 200 applicants to one job, thus 200:1, and assuming everyone applies to that job, there will be an average of 200 applicants per position.

When there are 100 jobs available, the ratio is 200 applicants to 100 jobs, thus 2:1. Assuming everyone applies for all of these jobs, there is STILL an average of 200 applicants per position.

So, while the odds that you land any specific job *might* be 1 in 200, if there are multiple jobs, then the odds you land ANY job will be much better.

This also doesn't account for the jobs that might open up as a result of people moving from one job to another. Assuming half of the people on the market currently have a job that would need to be filled if they left for a new one, then while the quality of the jobs might change, the number of jobs would eventually even out for every time one of those people are hired in a 'new' job (and their old department releases a job ad).