Would I be Settling?

[Confused]

I currently have an offer from an R2, and the salary is not great, however the faculty seems nice, and there are some other pros. I have had flyouts at two highly ranked R1s, and did not get offers. I have another interview in January at an R2, but that doesn't seem like I will make too much more there.

This is my first year on the market. Would taking this job be a poor career move? I am currently at a highly ranked R1. My advisor and I think I could do better, but will I do better is a much different question and a gamble. 

[1]

you could always try to improve if you really think you are above an R2. Even high ranked R1s struggle on the market though. There is a lot of luck involved.

you need to decide if the gamble is worth it and no one can answer that but you.

[maths]

Exercise #1: count the number of your department graduate student colleagues on the market this year, then compare that to the number of professors your department hired this past year. My guess is that this is a very high (and possibly depressing) candidate-to-jobs ratio.

Exercise #2: do the same for the top five comparable R1 schools. Same result?

There are simply many more R1-trained PhDs than R1 openings. Based on simple math, it is unlikely any of us will land a position that is similar in rank to where we went to graduate school. The vast majority of jobs for us are in R2s or undergrad-only programs (such as regional universities, SLACs, community colleges). Call it “settling” if you want, but that’s the reality of this market and profession.

Exercise #3: look at the CVs of R1 full professors. It is the rare one who landed a prestigious R1 position right out of the gate and later received tenure (much less stayed there their entire career). Lots of transitions take place in these elite settings.